But as the argument unfolded I realised Spencer was drawing on
observations and measurements from the new Aqua satellites to explain
the mechanism behind this anomaly between model forecasts and
observation. You may have heard that the IPCC models cannot predict
clouds and rain with any accuracy. Their models assume water vapour goes
up to the troposphere and hangs around to cook us all in a greenhouse
future.
However, there is a mechanism at work that "washes out" the water vapour
and returns it to the oceans along with the extra CO2 and thus turns the
added water vapour into a NEGATIVE feedback mechanism.
The newly discovered mechanism is a combination of clouds and rain
(Spencer's mechanism adds to the mechanism earlier identified by
Professor Richard Lindzen called the Iris effect).
The IPCC models assumed water vapour formed clouds at high altitudes
that lead to further warming.
The Aqua satellite observations and Spencer's analysis show water vapour
actually forms clouds at low altitudes that lead to cooling.
Furthermore, Spencer shows the extra rain that falls from these clouds
cools the underlying oceans, providing a second negative feedback to
negate the CO2 warming.
Alarmists' quandary
This has struck the alarmists like a thunderbolt, especially as the lead
author of the IPCC chapter on feedback has written to Spencer agreeing
that he is right!
There goes the alarmist neighbourhood!
The climate is not highly sensitive to CO2 warming because water vapour
is a damper against the warming effect of CO2.
That is why history is full of Ice Ages - where other effects, such as
increased reflection from the ice cover, do provide positive feedback -
while we do not hear about Heat Ages. The Medieval Warm Period, for
example, is known for being benignly warm - not dangerously hot.
We live on a benign planet - except when it occasionally gets damned
cold.
[...]
Dr Marohasy says the impact of the Aqua satellite and Spencer's
interpretation of the data and prompts the re****ter to conclude with
some pungent observations of his own:
"If Marohasy is anywhere near right about the impending collapse of the
global warming paradigm, life will suddenly become a whole lot more
interesting.
"A great many founts of authority, from the Royal Society to the UN,
most heads of government along with countless captains of industry,
learned professors, commentators and journalists will be profoundly
embarrassed.
Let us hope it is a prolonged and chastening experience!!!!!!!!
Owen McShane
7 Apr 2008
http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=21153&cid=39&cname=NBR
Warmest Regards
Bonzo
"There is no compelling evidence that carbon dioxide has any significant
control over the direction of global temperature and climate. The
processes that regulate the interannual to decadal fluctuations of
climate are poorly understood and, as yet, unpredictable" William
Kininmonth, Meteorologist, Former Head, National Climate Centre, Bureau
of Meteorology, 1986-1998
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