"Earl Evleth" <evleth@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
news:C43B4645.1217CE%evleth@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> On 27/04/08 22:47, in article
> 7cp9149jun8po89ah1s42umvp3lbt092n0@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> "Whata Fool" <whata@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
>> Science will never reach the point where predictions more than
>> 30 days will be above 50 percent accurate.
>
>
> It depends on the prediction. One can predict with great accuracy the
> times of the sunrise and sunset.
>
> Next, is the precision of the prediction. One can predict the
> probable
> temperature range in any area to great accuracy, but as you narrow the
> range, the precision of the prediction drops.
>
> By next week I will be in New York. What will the temperature be?
> It will very likely not be near 0°C. My guess, without looking it
> ùp is that high will probably range between 55°F and 70°F Maybe around
> 60-65F. I won't be taking a heavy winter coat but a jacket. Currently
> the high projected in a couple of days is 61°F. Currently a warming
> up to 70°F is projected for the end of the week. The record high
> is 90°F (1990) and low 34°F (1934) but the average is 65°F. So bet
> on the average.
>
> By the middle of next week I will be on Sanibel Island in Florida.
> I expect around 80°F weather there. In fact, I put money where
> my mouth is on that prediction, since we rented a nice place for
> a week, prepaid.
>
That's just intelligent (?) guesswork, just like
the fudge factors in climate model "predictions"!
Warmest Regards
Bonzo
".it should not be surprising to see hordes of former Reds, or of those
who otherwise would have become Reds, turning from Marxism and becoming
the Greens of the ecology movement. It is the same fundamental
philosophy in a different guise, ready as ever to wage war on the
freedom and well-being of the individual." Dr. George Reisman's book
Capitalism
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