"fritz" <fritz@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote
> Al Gore's environmental documentary An Inconvenient Truth contains nine
> key scientific
> errors, a High Court judge ruled yesterday.
a.. The judge himself never used the term "errors." That was an allegation
made by the plaintiff--whose motives are quite suspect. Stewart Dimmock,
who
brought this case, appears to have been funded by the very same fossil
fuel
interests who have sought to undermine the scientific consensus behind
global warming in the past. The Observer has re****ted that he was funded
by
mining interests as well as the Scientific Alliance, an industry-backed
non-profit with links to other groups in the U.S. like the U.S. based
George
C. Marshall Institute which has received funding from Exxon. This was also
re****ted in the U.S. Our experience is that when the vested interests do
not
like the message, they tend to use diversionary tactics to create
uncertainty or to fund individuals and groups to shoot the messenger. In
this instance, it appears they are trying to do both. According to these
re****ts, Mr. Dimmock will still not fully reveal who funded the case.
a.. The process of creating a 90-minute documentary from the original
peer-reviewed science for an audience of moviegoers in the U.S. and around
the world is complex. Vice President Gore has studied this issue for over
30
years. He regularly seeks the advice and feedback of scientists to
understand the latest research. It's not easy, even for Ph.D.'s, to
explain
the concept of the "non-linearity" of the climate system even after
decades
in their respective fields. Imagine trying to translate that complicated
scientific evidence into a clear and compelling message with only a single
slide and 20 seconds to make your case. It isn't simple. In many cases,
particular points had to be truncated and shortened from the original
research. A movie inherently cannot reflect the depth of the science as
the
3 volumes of the IPCC and other sources from which it draws. The original
science cannot speak to moviegoers. And, as is not made clear by the Fact
Checker, the judge stated clearly that he was not attempting to perform
"an
analysis of the scientific questions" in his ruling.
a.. Former Vice President Gore does not solely rely upon the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As many know, the IPCC operates
on a consensus driven process requiring the approval of all governments
involved. As a result, its findings are often believed to be conservative.
In addition, new science is published every week in top journals such as
Science, Nature, Eos and others. Some scientists predict more extreme
consequences and some predict more conservative effects, but Vice
President
Gore tried to convey in good faith those threats that he views as the most
serious. Although we commend the Fact Checker for looking to the IPCC, Mr.
Gore relies upon other highly credible sources as well.
Since the Fact Checker has afforded us the op****tunity to respond
specifically to the nine points at issue, we will do so.
a.. Ice-sheet driven sea level rise. Scientists agree that the melting of
Greenland or the West Antarctic ice sheet would raise sea levels around
six
meters. The movie does not give a timescale for when that melting might
occur. There are uncertainties in the scientific community about the
timescale, but this uncertainty does not negate the need to seriously
consider these scenarios when considering solutions to the climate crisis.
IPCC estimates a sea level rise of 59 centimeters by 2100. However, they
exclude any water contributed by the melting of Greenland or Antarctica
because they don't know when either could happen. We hold our fate in our
own hands. If we conclude a strong treaty--or if we pass strong
legislation
in the US to cut the pollution that causes global warming, it could make a
real difference to our future and that of our children. Dr. Jim Hansen,
head
of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and someone whom we trust,
has
said that we may see several meters of sea level rise by 2100 if we do not
act.
a.. Pacific island nations needing to evacuate. On December 6, 2005, The
United Nations Environment Program announced that a small community living
in the Pacific island chain of Vanuatu had to relocate due to sea level
rise. In addition, in 2005, the people of the Carteret atoll in Papua New
Guinea announced their imminent evacuation and the government of Tuvalu
has
asked New Zealand to be ready to evacuate islanders. We acknowledge that
the
wording of the film here is unfortunate; however, the potential effects of
global warming on human displacement as a broader topic is a matter of
critical im****tance, which we believe warrants the attention of the global
community. The IPCC estimates that 150 million environmental refugees
could
exist by the year 2050, due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding,
shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption.
a.. Ocean Conveyor in the North Atlantic. Simulations described in the
latest IPCC re****t show a slowdown in the circulation by roughly 30
percent
by 2100. Again, there are uncertainties, which were a bit lengthy to
describe in a feature film documentary, but the future of the ocean
conveyer
really depends upon how quickly we take actions now to reduce the
pollution
that causes global warming. Multiple scientists have claimed that we
cannot
exclude the possibility of the disruption or shutdown of the Conveyor.
a.. CO2 Temperature connections in the ice core record. Greenhouse gas
levels and temperature changes in the ice age signals have a complicated
relation****p but they do "fit." That is true. There is a much longer
explanation. Rather than repeat it here, I will refer you to the more
complete description included in the archive of www.realclimate.org.
a.. Kilimanjaro. Mr. Gore has, for years, relied upon the research of Dr.
Lonnie Thompson and his wife Dr. Ellen Mosely Thompson. Dr. Thompson
recently received the National Medal of Science and works at the Byrd
Polar
Research Center. It is not just Kilimanjaro. Every tropical glacier for
which we have documented evidence shows that glaciers are retreating. The
evidence has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academies
of
Science (2006) as well as IPCC studies. As the movie states, there are
other
stresses on Kilimanjaro that are contributing to the problem. And this is
a
very, very im****tant point--fundamental to our understanding of climate
change: Global warming exacerbates the stresses that ecosystems (and
humans)
are already experiencing, such as drought, erosion, rising sea levels, and
****fts in extreme weather events.
a.. Drying up of Lake Chad. This example is used to illustrate what the
models are predicting which is the ****ft in rainfall across the Sahel
region
of Africa. As in the previous example, there are multiple stresses upon
Lake
Chad and again, human-induced climate change can and will make this
situation even worse.
a.. Hurricane Katrina and global warming. The film is careful not to
ascribe
any single weather event to climate change. However, in the film Mr. Gore
does state, "There have been warnings that hurricanes would get stronger."
He based that claim on research published in peer-reviewed journals from
Dr.
Kerry Emanuel, and several others, who have found a link between an
increase
in sea surface temperature and an increase in the intensity of hurricanes.
Since then, further research has strengthened the science in this area
with
regards to a link between human-induced climate change and hurricane
intensity. Mr. Gore has never addressed the issue of climate change and
hurricane frequency.
a.. Impact of sea ice retreat on polar bears. Polar bears only exist in
the
Arctic and hunt and live on the ice. Where there is not enough ice, they
are
required to swim. The US Minerals Management Service (part of the US
Department of Interior) re****ted new research in December 2005 about
increased polar bear mortality due to reduced sea ice. At the same time, a
study by the US Geological Survey and the Canadian Wildlife Service was
previewed showing a major polar bear population drop (22 percent) in
Hudson
Bay in Canada--which was also believed to be linked to sea ice decline.
Since 2005, more research has emerged in this area. In addition, Arctic
sea
ice decline was the lowest ever measured for minimum extent in 2007. The
US
Fish and Wildlife Service is now considering an Endangered Species Listing
for the polar bear in part because of the impact that human-induced
climate
change is having on their habitat.
a.. Global warming and coral reefs. The IPCC and other scientific bodies
have long identified increases in ocean temperatures with the bleaching of
coral reefs. Corals are also under stress from other factors like water
pollution (agricultural runoff), overfi****ng, and ocean acidification
(another direct impact of the release of carbon dioxide). These stresses
have a synergistic effect. As I have made clear earlier, global warming
places a further strain on an already burdened ecosystem.
To conclude, it's unfortunate that news coverage of the UK decision was so
sensational and, once again, directed conversation away from a broader and
much-needed discussion and debate about solutions to the climate crisis.
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