On 2008-03-19 11:17:15 -0700, Tad Borek <borekfm@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> said:
> My BS-ometer hits a 10 every time I read a quote about "five sigma
> events" or about a financial event that "should happen once every 7,000
> years" - I actually saw that in print the other day. These are
> emperor's clothes kinds of statements that to me immediately discredit
> whatever is being talked about. At least, in the context of "event
> frequency".
All models are based on assumptions, and they break down when an
assumption that nobody thought to question turns out to be wrong. And
the unforeseen events happen more than you might think. Buggy whips
were a great investment (as long as horses were the mode of
trans****tation and cars had not yet been invented). Brokerages are good
places to buy stocks (as long as brokers stay honest). Banks will
always be a safe place to keep your money (as long as there is no
nuclear war). Etc., etc.
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