One usually resorts to a model when it's about something new and not
well understood. Eventually, as data becomes available, the model
accuracy can be verified, but not before.
How someone claims a probability of hundreds of years for a model
that's months old is beyond me.
Or perhaps it's just s****-oil tactics, when the error margin for the
stated probability is larger than itself. For instance, the
probability for this to happen is 100 years, give or take 200
years. :-)
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