"Tad Borek" <borekfm@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote
> Even the 25-year events couldn't be identified yet, if
> they came in any sort of describable distribution that is,
> which of course they don't.
Right, and as I am sure you know but to clarify (IMO), even
application of the phrase "25-year event" to the field of
finance is dubious.
The shortness and lumpiness (as you put it) all by
themselves should be a red flag for anyone who is presented
with models allegedly predicting market behavior using
complicated statistical mathematics.
I am not sure how Volcker is viewed historically, but he
seems like an economist smart enough not to miss the forest
for the trees. Back to that theme of Sgt. Sausage's and
occasionally Skip Weldon's: It seems it's learning by
experience, tempered especially by living through all kind
of markets, that has great value when planning for the long
term. It's the older folks who have been investing for
decades that have the higher quants (pun intended) of bona
fide wisdom.
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