joetaxpayer <joetaxpayer@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> writes:
> BreadWithSpam@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
>
> > That was during a unique and extraordinary period. Over the
> > long run, houses go up at about 1-1.5% above inflation, NOT
> > at 20% in 6 months.
>
> BWS - see
> http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/****ller_graph.gif
>
> This is a Robert ****ller graph, ****ller of the 'Case - ****ller' index.
> The chart is inflation adjusted, and shows no increase to speak of
> from 1890 to the mid 1990s. Go right to the boom peak and we're at a
> bit under .7%/yr increase. May I ask where you get data to sup****t
I forget where I got the 1-1.5% number from, but I'm pretty
sure it excludes the 1890s slump. In fact, it may have started
at the end of WWI, which would account pretty well for it
being so much higher than the 1890-2007 Case ****ller.
Either way, Case-****ller makes an even *stronger* case
for my point - that real estate, or at least the raw
appreciation of it - does not make folks rich.
Of course, real estate is a very hard thing to use
such broad and long-range numbers for - individual
properties are unique, not commodities - which may make
for fantastic op****tunities for folks who really know
the markets and how to operate in them. And I have
no doubt that there are folks who really can work
those markets. Unfortunately, the recent housing
price silliness led a lot of folks to think they were
real estate geniuses, just as the tech bubble misled
a lot of folks into thinking they were stock market
geniuses.
--
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