"Bill Reid" <hormelfree@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
news:Ms_Dj.22159$D_3.15454@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> jonathan <maatschj@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
>
> I'm getting bored...what makes you THINK that these results
> aren't the result of "luck" rather than design?
Too early to say, but the results have been steadily improving.
Of the five losers, two of them were the very first two trades (-3% each)
where I was more interested in seeing if the account still worked.
And a third was a 9% percent loss that was a fluke I believe.
I bought the stock online as usual, but when I went to sell
a couple of hours later that day, dear e-trade said the stock
can only be sold through a broker now, not online anymore.
Since it was going up too fast.
By the time I got a broker a nice gain turned into the loss.
The other two losers were 2% each.
But 8 out of the 13 winners were 5%, %5, 7%, 10%, 10%, 10%17%,23%.
And this is trading while I can only sneek onto the company
computer for less than an hour a day, and mostly using
my cell phone for trading. With it's little-bitty fuzzy charts.
>
>> The basic idea behind my trading system is outlined
>> abstractly in the first link....great stuff.
>
> I ain't gonna look at it...what's it say?
It says, that under certain dynamical states, all stocks will
behave in the same way. And (only) at this state, the behavior
becomes not at all dependent on the specific inner details of the
company at hand. Also, (only) this dynamic state is defined the
theoretical point at which volatility and predictability
converge to /simultaneous/ maximums.
These are some of the key properties of what is called
The Edge of Chaos. You already know the basic idea
but probably don't realize it's potential.
A cloud, while a cloud, stands persistanly poised at the
transition point between water and va****. It's at the
Edge of Chaos. What happens if the temp or humidity
changes even a bit? The cloud suddenly becomes....either
water or va****.
A very dramatic yet predictable change that occurs
in the very same way every time, regardless of the
nature of the system. Living, physical or even emotional.
The trick is to find a chart that is at this delicate transition point.
Drive a system just far enough from equilibruim, and they can act
like a flock of birds when driven by good news.
Or thunderstorms when the news is gloomy.
Either way, dramatic yet predictable change takes
place at or near either extremes in possibility.
Whether a bubble bursting or a company teeteriing
on the brink of disaster. Exploring the sweet spots
or transition points of either /extremes/ are where
it's at.
>
>> I think I can claim
>> to have successfully used Chaos Theory, now called
>> Complexity Science, in creating a very simple trading system.
>
> Where have I heard this before? Oh, that's right, right in this
> newsgroup (misc.invest.stocks) from a guy who posted a few
> times, couldn't back up any of his claims, then disappeared...
That probably would be me, I've been working on this for
a couple of years. I'm finally giving it a test with larger
sums of money. Eh hum...I finally have larger sums of
money to test it with...I should say~
In the past it's tested out about the same.
>
>> I think I've finally done it!!!
>
> You THINK?
I'm pretty sure, but ya know, I've been wrong once or twice~
>
> Do you know the difference between "thinking" and "hoping"?
Amount of data. The trades so far are only a tease, more than hope
but less than sure.
>
>> Does anyone know of any trading systems using the concepts
>> of chaos theory?
>
> My system draws in part from chaos theory. It most im****tantly
> draws from the chaos theory concept of "multiplication of errors",
> in which very small initial data errors are magnified and prediction
> becomes well-nigh impossible...hence the name "chaos" theory...
>
>> I've looked and haven't found anything
>> online yet even close.
>
> Anything that really "works" isn't going to be widely-disseminated...
Well it should be, in (chaos) theory the more that know, the better
it will work for everyone. Once I'm fat and happy, I'll be more
detailed. For now I'm sticking with discussing theory only.
These concepts require some ability to take an idea and run with it.
>
>> TOWARD THE 'EDGE METHODOLOGY' FOR COMPLEX
>> SYSTEMS SIMULATION
>> http://www.calresco.org/milov/ymtemcss.htm
>
> If I actually looked at this, it'd probably be something I worked
> out like twenty years ago...
>
>> My bible
>>
>> The Complexity & Artificial Life Research Concept
>> for Self-Organizing Systems
>> http://www.calresco.org/
>
> How ya feel about genetic algorithms? They're "fun" too...
Nature shows us the process for the best possible solution
to any problem.
Jonathan
>
> ---
> William Ernest Reid
> Post count: 975
>
>
>
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