J. <joshuatreescorpion@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
news:5I8Sj.106753$497.39439@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> While waiting for the FCC to approve, or not approve the final clearance
> tofr SIRI and XMSR to merge, SIRI looks like a good deal around the
$2.50/sh
> range, or is it? If approval is finalized, how much upside is there on
SIRI
> share price?
Long-term, probably none.
I've posted several times on Sirius, and lately I've just taken to
repeating my old posts, to save typing the same stuff out again
that nobody will listen to despite the fact it's the God's Honest Truth...
Here's the really pertinent long-term analysis:
From: Bill Reid <hormelfree@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
Subject: Re: Siri: Am I screwed?
Date: Tuesday, April 17, 2007 8:28 AM
martin <jmartyion@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
news:__UUh.407267$8a4.397879@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Hi, I'm a total newbie in investing, and somewhat of a dolt.
Similar to insanity, admitting your lack of knowledge is a sign that
you're actually pretty smart...
> I took the
> advise of a relative to purchase certain tech and entertainment stocks,
one
> being Sirius (siri) back when it was at $5.00. Do I have to worry that
this
> will never rise again and they'll eventually go into bankruptcy?
>
Yes. From the way-back archives, back when a lot of the "people"
here were falling over themselves to recommend SIRI as at least a
"trading stock" if nothing else:
From: Bill Reid <hormelfree@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
Subject: Re: Please help others with what you know about trading futures.
Date: Friday, February 04, 2005
Fitzroy <hxh0@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
news:VfMMd.147533$K7.116199@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
....
> Conversely, is it possible to
> avoid investment in companies whose future profits
> have been grossly over-estimated by the market ?
>
Absotively.
> If it is possible, what skills are necessary ?
>
....
How about relatively simple math?
As long as you're talking about GROSS discrepancies between
current market./perception and price and eventual long-term
performance, it's not incredibly difficult.
....
Look, there's a stock now that everybody's interested in, ticker
SIRI. I can look into the wayback machine and tell you that with
about 95% probability that stock will be selling for no more than
$1 sometime in the future based on historical trends of valuation and
a quick sizing of the most optimistic estimate of their potential
market (it's bounded by the size of terrestrial radio). More
realistically, it would be over-priced at $0.15. Really, it's a
reasonable
candidate for bankruptcy.
It currently sells for what, about $5-7?
So, BAM!, SIRI is gone as a long-term hold.
....
Buying SIRI long-term isn't a good idea.
Shorting it isn't necessarily all that great an idea either...although in
the
long run you will most certainly make money, you should never short
anything "long-term", particularly a volatile popular stock, unless you
like talking to your broker and digging ever-deeper holes.
....
---
William Ernest Reid
---end of archived post excerpts
> I don't get this whole merger thing, I don't understand what it all
means
to
> sirius stock in the future if say it doesn't happen at all.
>
It doesn't change the analysis above one bit, except for certain
irrelevant details. SIRI could just put XMSR out of business through
pure competition and it wouldn't make any difference. The only
things that matter is the size of the total radio audience, their current
debt,
their projected capital and recurring costs to hold that audience, and
total shares of stock outstanding. The bottom line is: long-term,
you will be very lucky to even break even, and the "luck" will
most certainly come about in the "short-term".
You might want to go ahead and use the Google(TM) "Advanced
Groups Search" to find my posts in the referenced thread from 2005,
because it does outline a RATIONAL approach to stock selection,
as opposed to just taking the "advise of a relative", but as a caveat,
there's just about nobody on the planet that can really "do that
at home"...think of it as a series of TRUTHS about the market
as opposed to the typical baseless blathering that constitutes
95% of all stock market "advise"...
---
William Ernest Reid
Post count: 555
---end of endlessly re-repeated archived posts
Happy now? Probably not, but that's life...
---
William Ernest Reid
Post count: 1046
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