pg wrote:
> On Feb 29, 9:20 pm, Name Stolen <razzlefr...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>> pg wrote:
>>> 11 reasons Bernanke's recession lasts till 2011
>>> Timing the next bull: Kick-start it in 2008? Or is it a long secular
>>> bear?
>>> By Paul B. Farrell
>>> ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Remember that hot 1973
>>> Stealer's Wheel song marking the end of the Nixon era? "'Cause I don't
>>> think that I can take anymore. Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the
>>> right, here I am stuck in the middle with you!"
>>> It's still a perfect metaphor. Testifying before Congress: Fed
>>> Chairman Ben Bernanke on the left. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on
>>> the right. The American public stuck in the middle.
>>> Last summer they assured us the subprime-credit crisis was
>>> "contained." We now know that was a big lie. They knew, had the facts,
>>> early warnings, lied and are still lying. More proof? They just told
>>> Congress: "America will avoid a recession." New data tells a different
>>> story.
>>> Clowns to the left ... jokers right ... stuck in the middle ... can't
>>> take it anymore.
>>> But we have to, we have to hang on at least 10 months more, praying
>>> they won't do too much more damage. But I'm afraid they will: more
>>> lies, blunders and incompetence will drag out this bear. Like the song
>>> says: "Got a feeling something ain't right."
>>> Do you believe it? That's the big question today: When's the next
>>> bull? How long will the bear last? And forget Wa****ngton's rhetoric
>>> about "no recession." The truth is, you can call it a "bear," "slow
>>> growth," a "downturn," a "recession" -- call it whatever you want.
>>> Timing's the real question. How long will it last? When will it
>>> bottom? 2008? 2011?
>>> Test your timing skill. You tell us, what'll drag this out 30 months,
>>> like in 2000-2002? Or shorten it? Here are 11 critical factors for
>>> your timing equation, things that could make this bear-recession
>>> shorter or longer. You tell us. Add a comment. What's your prediction:
>>> How long before the next bull?
>>> 1. Stagflation: Bernanke's no-win Achilles heel
>>> Reading Fed-watcher William Fleckenstein's new book,
>>> "Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal
>>> Reserve," you get the feeling that for 18 years America's
>>> banking system was run like a "new age" hippy commune,
>>> by a Ayn Rand free spirit who believed "anything goes."
>>> Now the Fed's run by a college professor and Fleckenstein
>>> says he's "in over his head." Except this is the real
world,
>>> a $13 trillion economy in a $48 trillion world, not a
college
>>> seminar on economic theory.
>>> In the 1970s Nixon faced a similar problem, convinced then
>>> by Fed Chairman Arthur Burns: "No one ever lost an election
>>> on account of inflation."
>>> Wrong! Low rates generated inflation not growth. That
>>> stagflation triggered a bear/recession. Is Professor Ben
>>> trapped, repeating history?
>>> 2. Housing-credit meltdown: We've got a long way to go!
>>> It's far from over folks and still spreading: Years of
inventory,
>>> foreclosures, building slowdown, risky bond insurers, weak
>>> rating agencies, funds holding bad debt, freezing exits and
>>> fuzzy math on values. Yet Bernanke and Paulson still live
in
>>> a Wa****ngton bubble of wishful-thinking fantasies.
>>> Economic realists say what's needed is a massive $1.6
trillion
>>> demand-driven program (that's the record cash Cor****ate
>>> America's hoarding) not a dinky $160 billion supply-side
>>> "appease the voters" giveaway that ends up increasing the
>>> odds of a lengthy Nixon/Burns style bear-recession.
>>> 3. Commodities: World's new reserve 'currency,' not dollars
>>> Forget paper money and IOUs. Commodities are the world's
>>> new "currency:" Hard stuff like oil, grains, metals, gold.
And
>>> that means America is financing the growth of our enemies,
>>> surrendering our long-term economic power for short-term
>>> oil-guzzlers and plastic toys. We are responsible for
making
>>> Russia and China into threatening world powers. Buffett
>>> warned us. We're selling the farm, piece by piece.
>>> 4. Toxic derivatives: World's $516 trillion ticking time bomb
>>> Derivatives are great for deal-by-deal risk management in a
>>> $48 trillion GDP world. But leverage them 10 times over
>>> across the globe and we got a financial "weapon of mass
>>> economic destruction."
>>> Bill Gross warns that the world's new unregulated "shadow
>>> banking system" is printing new money, now at $516
trillion,
>>> out of thin air, with no "central banks of last resort"
backing
>>> up the "Frankenstein" monsters they've created.
>>> 5. Massive debt: Everywhere, trade, federal, states, local
>>> America's Comptroller General David Walker, Congress's
>>> head accountant who is leaving his position next month,
>>> warns our government is "bankrupting America." Using
>>> unethical accounting worse than Enron's. Fiscal
>>> responsibility lost. He sees "striking similarities" with
>>> Rome. Both parties are gluttons in a spending orgy.
>>> We spend-spend, load debt on future generations, then
>>> use accounting gimmicks to hide our greedy excesses:
>>> Hidden earmarks.
>>> Supplemental war appropriations.
>>> Meaningless IOUs after stealing from Social
Security.
>>> 6. America's new 'pushers:' Banks feeding consumer addicts
>>> Trader's Daily captured it perfectly: "Never underestimate
>>> the power of the superpsycho, hyper-spending American
>>> consumer. Where there is no cash, they will sell their
soul.
>>> Or just charge it. Let's just not think about what it all
means
>>> for credit-card debt down the road."
>>> Meanwhile, the credit meltdown is making banks desperate
>>> for money. A recent Chase credit-card commercial fuels
>>> consumer addictions: Wife wants bigger television.
>>> Husband smiles. They shop to the pounding drumbeat of
>>> Queen's hit 80s song: "I want it all, I want it all, I want
it
>>> all ...
>>> and I want it now!" Tag line: "Chase what matters!" Yes,
>>> Chase debt, all you addicts. Forget saving, spend like
>>> there's no tomorrow.
>>> 7. More wars: Pentagon predicts bigger, costlier conflicts
>>> The Pentagon's internal studies see a perfect storm
>>> accelerating wars worldwide: Global population growth,
>>> limited natural resources and global warming. Our war
>>> machine is exploding. The Pentagon gets over 50% in
>>> the new federal budget. We're only 21% of the world's
>>> GDP, yet spend 47% of the world's total military
expenditures.
>>> Our power-hungry mindset is becoming self-destructive,
>>> suicidal. Remember Nixon strategist Kevin Phillips'
warning:
>>> "Most great nations, at the peak of their economic
power,
>>> become arrogant and wage great world wars at great
cost,
>>> wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and
ultimately
>>> burning themselves out."
>>> 8. Greed: Wall Street and Cor****ate America's defining 'value'
>>> Values start at the top. But the top won't change for 10
months.
>>> Leader****p, statesman****p and character are vani****ng. Five
>>> short years ago Cor****ate America and the mutual fund
>>> industry were consumed by greed. How quickly we forget.
>>> It's worse today. We see greed consuming not just Wall
>>> Street's clueless CEOs, but the entire industry: Outrageous
>>> bonuses of $38 billion amid mega-billion write-offs. Fire
>>> sales of billions more American equity to sovereign
nations.
>>> From the top down, greed is driving America from bubble to
>>> bubble. Wall Street's already fueling the next bubble,
trading
>>> on a volatile market.
>>> 9. Democracy failing: America now run by 35,000 lobbyists!
>>> Forget government "of the people, by the people, and for
the
>>> people." Adam Smith's "invisible hand" is now a small
>>> group of 35,000 highly paid, greedy lobbyists demanding
>>> handouts. They run America from the shadows, for those
>>> at the top of the economic food chain and vastly outnumber
>>> Wa****ngton's 537 elected officials.
>>> Nationally there's an estimated quarter million lobbyists,
>>> with hundreds of millions of dollars to buy favors in
campaign
>>> contributions. Politicians talk "change," but America's
>>> lobbyists will still be working for their special interest
>>> clients in 2009. And they'll fight all "changes."
>>> 10. America's already in a recession, and in denial
>>> This year's elections will be a huge factor in lengthening
>>> the recession. Our lame-duck government will delay
>>> action on critical issues. It reminds me of my days
>>> counseling addicts and alcoholics. Change never
>>> happens until they admit they have a problem.
>>> Same here.
>>> Paulson and Bernanke cannot admit there's a recession.
>>> They'd have to take blame for America's failed policies.
>>> And congressional Democrats are weak co-conspirators
>>> in this meltdown. Nobody has the guts to take
responsibility.
>>> They're all like addicts and alcoholics, in denial, giving
>>> lip-service to "change," while they blame the other guys
>>> and sup****t ineffectual stimulus plans.
>>> Vote for whomever, but this lame-duck mindset plus
>>> lingering partisan rancor will push any recovery at least
>>> into 2009, probably delay the next bull till 2010 or 2011.
>>> 11. Class warfare: Superrich vs. Main Street America
>>> No matter who wins, the presidential campaign is warning
>>> us: A major battle's coming between "the rich and the
rest;"
>>> over taxes, benefits, cuts, power.
>>> For years the media collaborated with Wall Street and
>>> Cor****ate America, hyping "Owner****p, the New American
>>> Dream," where everyone benefits, shares the wealth, gains
>>> a piece-of-the-action, owner****p in "The Dream" through
>>> the magic of housing, stocks, growth, profits, retirement
>>> plans. But the housing-credit contagion killed the dream.
>>> Yes, the superrich did get richer. But "the rest" didn't.
And
>>> they're waking up to a widening gap. A backlash is brewing
>>> and will explode ... delaying a recovery and a new bull.
>>> Clowns to the left, jokers right, we're stuck in the middle. Can't
>>> take it anymore? Add a timing comment. Tell us: When's the recovery?
>>> Next bull? Late 2008? Not till 2011?
>>> End of Story
>> The "recession" is the product of the media alone. They have cried it
>> for so long the average American is afraid to spend any money, this
>> causing the recession.
>>
>> Were the media to start to brag on how great the economy is, the
average
>> American will go out and stimulate it more.
>>
>> There is no "recession" except in the hype of the media!
>
>
> Methinks you're giving media too much credits.
>
> You really think that the subprime crisis is the work of media alone??
>
> And the credit crunch that everybody is feeling right now, also
> fabricated by media??
>
> The price of crude oil, the price of food, the price of everything,
> all go up, all because of media told them to?
>
> Wow !!
The people who lost their homes from the subprime mess are victims of
their own stupidity. Had they taken the time to read and UNDERSTAND the
fine print, they would not have dug themselves into such a hole.
They deserve NO help from the government to recover.
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