visualseep...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
> On Mar 8, 1:35=EF=BF=BDam, Straydog <arthu...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> > For all the bad-mouthing of USD by BPOking (king of BS) and other
anti-
> > US Indians, I would suggest that what you guys should watch for is a
> > swing of money OUT of =EF=BF=BDEuros, Yen, and gold (and oil futures)
in=
6-12
> > months. All the money is going into those markets which are, right
>
>
> As the US dollar declines in value (mostly due to mismanagement)
I think your "mismanagement" might have been started by the Chinese
who deliberately and understandabley wanted to diversify their
reserves and so started buying Euros and Yen (they said publically,
some 1-1/2 years ago they would do this).
The rest of your "mismanagement" was fraud by the sub-prime lenders
who, also, according to a WSJ article, lobbied to prevent the Treasury
Department from regulating the version of lending that they were doing
and thus, those crooks (the lenders) got a ton of money and dumped
risky loans onto the rest of the system.
it
> makes ex****ts from America more competitive.
Yes.
The first signs of this
> will be a rise in bulk grain ****pments.
I think this is not necessarily true but I don't follow the economy in
that level of detail and you did not explain why you said this.
That will indicate a price
> level has been reached at which ex****ts from the US are competitive
> relative to other countries. Hopefully that happens before the
> consumer class collapses in the US and the economy dives into an
> inflationary recession.
I think we have to wait and see before saying this. Some people are
predicting "stagflation" already, but nobody really knows.
> As there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy other than
> reckless overspending, this is likely to happen. This is not on
> account of any brilliant plan by the US government. It just is the
> only way out of the financial mess.
The only "brilliant" plans are the scams generated by the crooks. The
sub-prime scandal is pure fraud cooked up by scam artists. The dot com
bubble was not a scam but a classic bubble fed by mass psychology and
herd instinct and history has recorded most of all past bubbles going
bact to tulip mania in western Europe some 400+ years ago. The options
backdating scam was cooked up by CEOs and BoDs also as a theif scam to
steal money. The Enron/Andersen/Worldcom scams were pure fraud. And,
back in the 1980s we had the S&L crisis which was also worth some
$500-600 billion, also bailed out by the taxpaying public because the
govt did not have enough money to prosecute all the crooks who bought
S&Ls so they could steal from the S&L at the expense of the public.
Lots of these guys did get away with a lot of money. You should read
about how the rich people pull off tax cheats and cheat the rest of us
out of more money. The best book I read about this is "Perfectly
Legal" by David Cay Johnson. He is still writing books.
> Instead of raising interest rates to attract capital, the US is trying
> to cheapen the cost of assets in the US to make it attractive to
> foreign buyers (aka investors).
The Fed is lowering interest rates to help avoid a recession in the
USA which would hurt us more than the rest of the world......
It hopes that by doing this, people
> will stop dumping dollars and instead invest it in the US.
While the primary effect of lowering interest rates is for the
purposes of helping the US economy, the secondary effect is to make
holding USD less lucrative than holding foreign currencies that still
have higher interest rates. Now, interest rates in the US are lower
than what the European Central Bank is paying, so I would expect that
people have two reasons to move their assets out of USD: i) Euros pay
more interest, and ii) the Euro is going up, and its just like buying
stock that is going up. Good payoff in the long run.
> Oil will not decline significantly as OPEC is testing the ability of
> the market to withstand its new benchmark of $100 per barrel.
Most people don't understand that most oil is bought and sold with
long term contracts and these $100/barrel prices are on the spot
commodity markets which publish the prices all day long. Most of that
oil bought on long term contracts is bought and sold at far lower
prices but you will never learn those prices because those contracts
are kept secret and details are proprietary. If you want to identify
a villain, then look at ExxonMobile who re****ted record profits
recently, more than any other company so the newspaper said and ask
what are they going to do with that money. The company says its going
to invest in new resources, whatever that means.
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