Re: Housing starts a.k.a. land attrition

On Mar 31, 10:18=A0pm, Dan Bloomquist <publi...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> Matt W. Barrow wrote:
> > "Dan Bloomquist" <publi...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
> >news:IIfIj.935$NU2.126@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >> Matt W. Barrow wrote:
> >>> "Tadej Brezina" <tadej_use...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
> >>>news:47f0e110$0$12126$3b214f66@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >>>> The earth has hardly the reserves to incur the last 100 years'
> >>>> exploitation and it's progression for another 100 years.
> >>> Can you back that up? Should I waste my time showing the billions of
> >>> barrels of known reserves?
> >> Are your 'reserves' sand oil and kerogen?
>
> > Well, no, so the rest of this tripe is of little worth.
>
> >> They have little to do with 'capacity to produce'. The ERoEI of
kerogen=
 is
> >> almost non existent. We have peaked in natural gas production in
North
> >> America so sand oil is pretty much a losing proposition. The EIA
predic=
ts
> >> demand to go well over 100 mb/d by 2025. Where will it come from?
>
> > You should not make assumptions (such as that I was talking about
keroge=
ns),
> > but then you'd have to really THINK, not just emote.
>
> You didn't answer the question. Where will it come from?- Hide quoted
text=
 -
>
> - Show quoted text -

Oh come on.  Stop being simplistic.  We will not run out of oil --
ever.  Period.  End of sentence.

As supplies become more and more limited, price goes up.  As price
goes up, substitutes become feasible.  As substitutes become more
plentiful, there is less demand for oil.  Eventuall, substitutes will
take over completely because it's too expensive to pump the remaining
oil, so it will sit in the ground forever.  It's economics 101.

So where will it all come from -- substitution.  But right now, it's
to early to know what the ultimate substitute will be.  But in the
end, the market will prevail.  It always does.