Re: Housing starts a.k.a. land attrition

"Pat" <groups@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message 
news:b54b54f3-be7b-4c96-b64d-d09ad5a765dc@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Mar 31, 10:18 pm, Dan Bloomquist <publi...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> Matt W. Barrow wrote:
> > "Dan Bloomquist" <publi...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
> >news:IIfIj.935$NU2.126@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >> Matt W. Barrow wrote:
> >>> "Tadej Brezina" <tadej_use...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
> >>>news:47f0e110$0$12126$3b214f66@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >>>> The earth has hardly the reserves to incur the last 100 years'
> >>>> exploitation and it's progression for another 100 years.
> >>> Can you back that up? Should I waste my time showing the billions of
> >>> barrels of known reserves?
> >> Are your 'reserves' sand oil and kerogen?
>
> > Well, no, so the rest of this tripe is of little worth.
>
> >> They have little to do with 'capacity to produce'. The ERoEI of
kerogen 
> >> is
> >> almost non existent. We have peaked in natural gas production in
North
> >> America so sand oil is pretty much a losing proposition. The EIA 
> >> predicts
> >> demand to go well over 100 mb/d by 2025. Where will it come from?
>
> > You should not make assumptions (such as that I was talking about 
> > kerogens),
> > but then you'd have to really THINK, not just emote.
>
> You didn't answer the question. Where will it come from?- Hide quoted 
> text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

> Oh come on.  Stop being simplistic.  We will not run out of oil --
> ever.  Period.  End of sentence.

> As supplies become more and more limited, price goes up.  As price
> goes up, substitutes become feasible.

Well, we could, if alternative are not developed.

But not only are substitutes developed, drilling in more difficult and 
inhospitable locations becomes feasible,  both technologically and 
economically.


> As substitutes become more
> plentiful, there is less demand for oil.  Eventually, substitutes will
> take over completely because it's too expensive to pump the remaining
> oil, so it will sit in the ground forever.  It's economics 101.

Econ 101 - something these two ratchetheads don't comprehend. They 
apparently have been innured with the "Fixed Pie" school of thought.

> So where will it all come from -- substitution.  But right now, it's
> to early to know what the ultimate substitute will be.  But in the
> end, the market will prevail.  It always does.

Right now, the US has AT LEAST 50 years of oil deposits available fairly 
readily.

Just one hundred years ago, a 1000 foot well was a major accomplishment. 
Today, 28,000 feet is no big deal.

As well, major strides are being made in nuclear generation 
http://gt-mhr.ga.com,
even the Tokomac Fusion generator holds some longer 
term promise.

our lives are enhanced by the geniuses of the world (like those mentioned
in 
the above web articles), not the putzes banging away on daddy's computer 
like Bloomquist and Loomis.