On Apr 2, 5:00=A0am, "J.H.Boersema" <jo...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> phil scott <p...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> [...]
>
> >Those living comfortably today on a modest income, will almost over
> >night not be living at all comfortably as fuel, food, rent cross the
> >budget threshold...then these stop buying and the rest of the economic
> >decline accelerates.
>
> >We are beyond the range of 'economic cycles'...we are well beyond the
> >range of recession/ depression cycles...we are at the end of a life
> >cycle... or end of empire cycle, =A0 =A0 =A0(mapped by the Russian
> >economist, kondratiev, analysed by Prof Ravi Batra..in =A0his book 'the
> >coming depression 1990)
>
> We are not only at the end of a business-cycle + end of an empire
> cycle, we are also at the end of a larger technology/culture cycle.
> If a business cycle lasts years, a national cycle lasts centuries,
> the technological cycle has lasted many tens of thousands of years,
> even hundreds of thousands or maybe millions. But it is a cycle with
> a defined crunch-point, which is where we are at for some decades right
> now. To really pin it down: 1947 we got technical superiority over all
> animals in the hands of ordinary people (AK-47 machine gun), and about
> 1967 humanity set up its own high-tech nuclear suicide mechanism,
> helped tremendously by the American attempt to build the atom-bomb,
> which dramatically shortened the time-frame 1947-1967. =A0Those 20
> years were more or less a golden age in theory, in which humanity
> could have realized that it was all powerful over all former natural
> enemies, yet did not have to fear total destruction from its own kind.
> Had that time-frame lasted 200 years and not 20, it might have gone
> down differently entirely. But the Americans wanted their bomb, and
> hence spread a big panic around the world IMHO, and the focus quickly
> ****fted even further from human-on-animal violence to human-on-human
> violence. The nuclear bomb is much more complicated to the AK-47, so
> it is somewhat unnatural I guess that the atom-bomb mutual slaughter
> of humanity came so close to superiority over animals in the field.
>
> This technology cycle has a moral direction: once a species starts
> to use technology, fighting within the species disappears because
> natural evolution increasingly stops favoring it more and more,
> depending on the state of that technology (unless the species is
> over-aggressive, actively out to destroy its non-violent individuals,
> such as humanity).
>
> The only goal of survival of a technical species is to become
> peaceful, or else it will not live past a point in the technology
> cycle, but it will either: self-destruct, or turn itself into a
> "high tech hell world." This high-tech hell world seems to be the
> to be expected course of action for humanity if nothing is done.
> Humanity is a dim and violent species, which also happens to be
> dexterous enough to play with technology and develop that quickly.
> Thus allowing little time for natural evolution to catch on.
> This means basically the deck is stacked against humanity to make
> it through this technology/culture cycle alive. The human body
> seems, comparative other animals, objectively more dexterous.
> Apes also seem objectively one of the more violent species. Even
> lions spend most of the day laying around doing nothing while apes
> obsess about their position in the hierarchy all day long. Both
> apes and lions kill their own kind in power struggles, and children
> not theirs.
>
> Humanity is like a crazed ape driving a racing car straight into a
> brick wall with a stone on the gas, while sitting on the spoiler
> and sma****ng the lifeless body of another racer caught from its car
> unto the track, pounding its chest and screaming out how grand and
> superior it is. The bend that this ape is missing is the bend toward
> peace, the wall is total destruction and/or setting up of high-tech
> hell turning this world into an actual physical hell from which escape
> could prove difficult. That is where we are now: the technology cycle
> starts to make significant demands, or problems will occur. The end
> of the American empire is comparatively a sideshow. But there are
> some aspects that factor in the larger cycle, such as the build-up
> of weaponry that primarily the USA and also Europe have done, and
> some elitist in the world that want to set up the negative side of
> the technology / culture cycle (high tech micro-chipped hell). Those
> people want the technology cycle to fail and think they can profit from
> that.
>
> The public seems to think the USA is having a business cycle
> depression, some people believe USA is imploding from corruption
> (and capitalism), even fewer are aware that we are at the end of a
> multi-million year technology cycle ! =A0But the most im****tant
decisions
> always emanate from the longest term issues. The USA business cycles
> are a ripple on the larger more im****tant wave of the USA empire rise
> and fall. One business up/down cycle can not do or undo the rise and
> fall of the Nation, its effect is too small. =A0Similarly the fall of
> the USA and the possible rise of new corrupt empires the EU, and other
> rise/fall of Nations in the world, does only marginally impact what
> happens with the largest technology wave, which is like a total rise or
> sinking in sea level. A business cycle, a good or bad administration,
> is like a wave on the surface of the ocean; the rise and fall of
> Nations is like the ebb and flood caused by the moon; the rise of
> technology is like the average sea level on Earth. These cycles are
> decoupled to some extend, as they are so different in scale. What will
> happen in the furthest future is determined by the cycle that lasts
> longest and is most fundamental: the technology cycle. Its present day
> demand is simple: world peace, or prepare for unparalleled catastrophe.
> The waters have risen, technology has improved, either we swim for
> peace or we drown in our own violence. Both can still occur, perhaps
> both will occur at the same time, as it is also a historical process.
> Even if the ocean levels rise or fall, doesn't mean there is no ebb and
> flood, or no waves on the surface.
>
> The technology cycle has gone through these phases: bare single
> objects, multiple objects, objects crafted with increasing perfection,
> contraptions and tool like stuff, then using external power like wind
> and animal, using machine power, electronics, etc. =A0On the upside:
> the time scale of the technology wave is so long that it can take a
> long time for the actual catastrophe to happen, allowing more time to
> still try to make it, also with the help of that same technology. As
> usual it is only a minority who messes things up for the rest of us.
> The rules that allow rent-seeking put this minority in power, and
> that will probably have implications for the technology cycle because
> rent seeking is such a long standing and fundamental effect which is
> allowed in almost all Nations. It may eventually cause humanity to
> self destruct. That would be a sad accident over such a comparatively
> minor oversight, wouldn't it. On the other hand, making this oversight
> implies only dim half unconscious life exists in humanity, thus humanity
> really does belong between animals and plants, undeserving of high tech
> and incapable of operating it. That's why this long-term technology
> cycle is one of those perfect things that exist in the Universe. Back
> to animal life to sharpen those individual wits some more. One cycle
> feeds into another, auto-generating the necessary stimuli.
> --
> _ _ /_\ _ _http://www.jhwh.be=A0sign
petition for Democratic
> \ /v`vvv\ / =A0 =A0Authorities Ventures Investments Demarcations
> /_\_#_#_/_\ =A0constitution today:http://www.jhwh.be/petition
> =A0 =A0 \ / =A0 =A0#153http://www.xs4all.nl/~joshb/no-id-theft.html
thanks, that was a pleasant read. mostly accurate id say, with the
outcome well defined in various flavors.
Looking at the intelligence of the pyramid builders for instance,
juxtaposed to today, and the greek philosophers juxtaposed to today...
and whats running loose on our streets and engineering offices and
govt... humanities witts have not progressed much if at all... just
technical skills have progressed as these build one upon the other,
but not human nature.... the 'wits' quotient seems to have stayed more
or less level if not declined.
on that basis, it appears that humainity is destined to win the Gold
Darwin award.
Are we at the end of the technological wave you describe? maybe. at
least to some degree we are. being such a large wave it will have a
long fuzzy ending ..not as definitive as the other cycles. So we
will see the various national collapses as well, but in context with
this wave you desccribe.
Phil scott
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