phil scott <phil@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>On Apr 2, 5:00=A0am, "J.H.Boersema" <jo...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>>phil scott <p...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>>[...]
>>> Those living comfortably today on a modest income, will almost over
>>> night not be living at all comfortably as fuel, food, rent cross the
>>> budget threshold...then these stop buying and the rest of the economic
>>> decline accelerates.
>>
>>> We are beyond the range of 'economic cycles'...we are well beyond the
>>> range of recession/ depression cycles...we are at the end of a life
>>> cycle... or end of empire cycle, =A0 =A0 =A0(mapped by the Russian
>>> economist, kondratiev, analysed by Prof Ravi Batra..in =A0his book
'the
>>> coming depression 1990)
>>
>> We are not only at the end of a business-cycle + end of an empire
>> cycle, we are also at the end of a larger technology/culture cycle.
>
> thanks, that was a pleasant read. mostly accurate id say, with the
> outcome well defined in various flavors.
>
> Looking at the intelligence of the pyramid builders for instance,
> juxtaposed to today, and the greek philosophers juxtaposed to today...
> and whats running loose on our streets and engineering offices and
> govt... humanities witts have not progressed much if at all... just
> technical skills have progressed as these build one upon the other,
> but not human nature.... the 'wits' quotient seems to have stayed more
> or less level if not declined.
What I found, uhm, devastating, is that apparently archeologiests
have discovered ancient pyramid builders/workers, were burried along
side beer containers. They valued their beer so highly they wanted
to take it to "the after life." I think that beer usage is perhaps
the single worst contributor to the lack of wits in humanity. People
are spending their spare time, that ought to be used to think and
discover things, on dumbing themselves down using alcohol. It seems
that little has changed between then and now on that count.
> on that basis, it appears that humainity is destined to win the Gold
> Darwin award.
>
> Are we at the end of the technological wave you describe? maybe. at
> least to some degree we are. being such a large wave it will have a
> long fuzzy ending ..not as definitive as the other cycles. So we
> will see the various national collapses as well, but in context with
> this wave you desccribe.
I was thinking a bit more on this, it may be possible to identify larger
waves in more detail.
Some waves that individuals can have significant impact on:
A The decisions cycle, days long.
B The administration/business cycle wave, decades long.
C The National/empire wave, centuries long (the larger the empire the
longer the wave ?)
Longer waves that depend on groups:
D A cultural wave which started about 6000 years ago when humanity
started to settle down. That has created a world of culture that in
many ways is unbroken to the present. Those Nations have died, but
we still are living in cities unbroken since then, using agriculture
like they started to do.
E A technical wave that started in the early stone age with stone tools.
I am looking at a book claiming some of the stone arrow-heads were
crafted 2,700,000-12,000 years ago, another 250,000-70,000 years ago.
The technology wave is in the hundreds of thousands of years now.
It can be a distinct wave from the culture wave because you can have
settled villages at some point, lose that again, but it wouldn't
necessarily affect basic stone age tool usage, which would be more
widely spread out and what survivors from settlements would fall back
on.
Then waves so long that it becomes biological:
F A species wave that starts when humanity splits off from apes and
develops new body features. I have read biologists estimate we split
away from a common ancestor which chimps about 7 million years ago.
A species wave in the millions of years now, it takes millions of
years to look at the adventures of an entire species. The use of basic
tools has altered our biology somewhat, hence it seems reasonable to
put this wave below the technical wave as there is some impact
back/forth. Nearby waves could impact each other a little.
G Then there can be family-species waves like "all primates with
dexterous hands" in the tens of millions of years now I guess.
H ... wider family of species hundreds of millions of years ...
....
Then waves so long it might become chemical/cosmic:
? Chemical composition of planets, life o/t planet, location wrt a star.
Billions of years.
....
This means that if the technical E wave is in trouble because it
demands world peace but doesn't get it, we need something large enough
to impact it sufficiently. We can not even really fix it from the level
of the cultural wave, although that is the nearest wave and the one
more easily impacted by individual/group action. Trying to solve the
problem by solving only a specific national/empire C wave issue is
impractical since it has almost no impact on the much more fundamental
technical E wave. Does it help if we get health-care set up right ?
Does that solve all our problems then: definitely not. It is only going
to have a marginal impact.
At least the problems of the national/empire C wave level must all be
solved, so as to include all nations and empires and their interactions
into a solution against war, as long as demanded by the technical E wave
(basically forever). At that point the impact we'd be making from
the national/empire C wave by including all Nations/empires and their
interactions and into the furthest future, it seems obvious that we
are really working on the time-scale and impact level of a larger wave,
the cultural D wave. We are fundamentally altering the cultural wave,
we are altering world culture to the degree needed.
However we can not solve the problems of all nations/empires and their
interactions, if we can not solve the problems that one nation/empire
in isolation presents ! If we can't get one Nation right, stable,
have justice and be peaceful, have insignificant corruption, no
exploitation, all that (economics stuff mostly), there is no hope
of solving the problems of all Nations and the surrounding culture
enough and for long enough. What we need is an economic model that
works for everyone, producing a stable, happy nation, which wants to
live on, is content, does not want to wage war and roots strongly
for peace. With such a National unit in hand we are in a position to solve
the problem of all nations and their interactions, presumably by
replicating the solutions in most/all Nations. Good people must be
promoted and bad people must be demoted by these solutions so that
good people end up successful and bad people unsuccessful. That breeds
stability and need for peace in the long term.
Solving the challenges of making stable happy Nations that want peace,
requires solving the challenge of creating beneficial administrations,
and successful individual lives of people inside nation. What we need
for content and peaceful people is some things, primarily people
need to have power over their lives and things have to be real and
mean something, be creative and open ended. When people die they have
to think to themselves that their live has been worthwhile. For
these things we need businesses that are democracies, Governments
are democracies, and we need an economic model that works to keep it
stable long term. An economic model that works is the trade system,
but money and land are special. Money investment in businesses can
not be for profit, land should be distributed. A ban on speculative
business credit, a ban on having more land then an equal share, solving
the gaps those bans leave.
At that point we've solved the problem of individual lives sufficiently
to impact the nation as a whole: people have rich op****tunity, they
got land, no Government oppression, no business boss oppression,
interesting market culture, etc. People presumably have tools,
entertainment even, good food and drink, the amenities of a still
productive technical cycle. Best of all they have the power they need,
what the people want individually and collectively gets done.
With that in hand and state democracy a fact, the people have the
capacity to mold their Government, and are not in competition with a
parasitic finance sector. This will perfect the nation over time. With the
perfected nations all around the world, trading with each other, we
are starting to make a bigger global impact needed to fix the technical
E wave demand for world peace. Successful trading highly democratized
and content Nations do not wage war with each other, it would be absurd
to even think about it. It wouldn't even be profitable.
For all that to happen, which is definitely possible, the smallest things
on the decision A wave will need to happen first ...
Once we have fixed it on the cultural level we will have to keep that
going for many thousands of years to eventually impact the technical E
wave, such as one might think we forget how weapons are being build,
and start working with, instead of against, the moral evolutionary
pressure that the technical wave itself has. Eventually people become
more and more innately to peace and disgusted by violence of all kinds,
which would fixate humanity in that moral position and successfully
complete our transition from the violent animal kingdom, to being
high tech, peaceful and successful. At that point we are positively
impacting the human species F wave, curing all diseases of course,
and our good ways will probably eventually positively impact the waves
below our species wave. Some of that is already happening with people
who like to save nature for nature sake, and cause other animals to have
a good life and such. So there is definitely a lot going for us already
on all of the various waves and therefore we can absolutely make it.
I'm writing this stuff on GNU/Linux OS, lots of people use technology
to benefit the world rather then make war. All we have to do is
bring out the good stuff, be strong in morality wherever possible,
solve a number of personal, national and inter-national problems, and
keep solving them and hope it will work out.
On the upside we don't have to solve problems with the species wave:
our bodies seem to be quite alright and our brains appear capable of
living peacefully. Secondly most people appear to want peace and not
war, the biggest cultural battle is already won ! That means that
our problems are mostly inside-national and international. We already
have inter-national trade and communication and different National
peoples generally don't wish each other's destruction at all but wish
each other the best, lots of travel back/forth, the inter-national
level is effectively solved mostly. What is not solved is how to set
up a nation though, and how to fix administrations and have businesses.
The national economics is going bad. That is our biggest problem IMHO.
If we solve that we are probably on the home-straight to lasting world
peace.
I believe this will +- solve inside-National economics problem:
http://www.jhwh.be/~joshb/sheet1.html
Exmpl law: http://www.jhwh.be/law
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