On Apr 6, 9:38 pm, forbisga...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
> On Apr 6, 8:59 pm, "FrediFizzx" <fredifi...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> > <forbisga...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
>
> >news:688ecf62-7d36-4145-9aba-c59a99f00cfe@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > On Apr 6, 8:03 pm, Blash <bla...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> > >FrediFizzxwrote on 4/6/08 10:45 PM:
>
> > > > So freakin' what? The US foreclosure rate is barely higher than
> > > > the
> > > > year over year average. It's no big deal. But you would
> > > > understand
> > > > that if you knew anything about economics. Stop pretending that
> > > > you
> > > > do.
>
> > > > Fred
>
> > > > <Vide...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
> > >
>news:6b39af5c-88f9-4902-a823-306f35878dd1@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > > >> foreclosures spreading to wealthy la la lands
>
> > > > [snip copy and paste doom and gloomer BS]
>
> > > You hit it right on the head with this guy......he must spend his
> > > life
> > > scanning for bad news articles to "Copy & Paste" and then
> > > cross-post
> > > them
> > > across the net.......
> > > His ONLY claim to fame is writing 100+ word Subject lines.........
>
> > So what is the year over year average forclosure rate? How far
> > off the norm is this year relative to others? Are we within the
> > 70th precentile?
> > ========================
>
> > About 1 percent for the yoy rate. If this year is about 50 percent
> > higher, then we are at about 1.5 percent yoy. It is no big deal
> > compared to the total amount of mortgages.
>
> As a mere human I don't have access to historical data.
> Fromhttp://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/60619.htm
>
> The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 2.04
> percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth
> quarter, an increase of 35 basis points from the third quarter
> of 2007 and 85 basis points from one year ago.
That includes up to 4 unit residential properties so has some commercial
residential mixed in with it. But even at 2 percent of total mortgages
it is not a big deal. Now, if it was 4 to 5 percent then we are in some
trouble. ;-)
> The increase in foreclosure starts was due to increases for
> both prime and subprime loans. From the previous quarter,
> prime fixed rate loan foreclosure starts remained unchanged
> at 0.22 percent, but prime ARM foreclosure starts increased
> four basis points to 1.06 percent. Subprime fixed foreclosure
> starts increased 14 basis points to 1.52 percent and subprime
> ARM foreclosure starts increased 57 basis points to 5.29 percent.
> FHA foreclosure starts decreased 4 basis points to 0.91 percent
> and VA foreclosure starts remained unchanged at 0.39.
>
> 5.29 percent for subprime means that more than one in 20 subprime
> loans started foreclosure processing last quarter. That's in one
> quarter. If that rate held for a year that would be more than
> one in five subprimes had started foreclosure during the year.
> That's not siginficant?
That is not how it works. If the rate held for the whole year, it would
still just be one in 20 for the entire year. Thru the fourth quarter
the percentage of total mortgage foreclosures due to subprime ARM was
about 0.85 percent (42 percent of 2.04 percent). So we can see that
most of the increase of the yoy average was due to that. It is really
not very significant. Also because most of these subprimes are not of
high dollar amount mortgages to start with.
"Of significance, however, is that the rate reset issue on adjustable
rate mortgages is becoming less of an issue. The 6-month LIBOR rate,
the index rate used for many subprime ARMs, has come down around 2.5
percentage points since last September, greatly reducing the payment
shock on many ARM resets."
This means things are getting better for those facing subprime ARM
resets and the foreclosure rate should come down.
The media loves to blow this all out of pro****tion. Sure, maybe the
foreclosure rate doubled (scary sounding) but it is still not very high
compared to the total amount of mortgages. Call me if it ever gets to 4
percent; then I will start to worry about it. ;-)
Fred
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