On Apr 6, 11:15=A0pm, "FrediFizzx" <fredifi...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> On Apr 6, 9:38 pm, forbisga...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > On Apr 6, 8:59 pm, "FrediFizzx" <fredifi...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> > > <forbisga...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
>
> >
>news:688ecf62-7d36-4145-9aba-c59a99f00cfe@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > > On Apr 6, 8:03 pm, Blash <bla...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> > > >FrediFizzxwrote on 4/6/08 10:45 PM:
>
> > > > > So freakin' what? The US foreclosure rate is barely higher than
> > > > > the
> > > > > year over year average. It's no big deal. But you would
> > > > > understand
> > > > > that if you knew anything about economics. Stop pretending that
> > > > > you
> > > > > do.
>
> > > > > Fred
>
> > > > > <Vide...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
> > > >
>news:6b39af5c-88f9-4902-a823-306f35878dd1@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > > > >> foreclosures spreading to wealthy la la lands
>
> > > > > [snip copy and paste doom and gloomer BS]
>
> > > > You hit it right on the head with this guy......he must spend his
> > > > life
> > > > scanning for bad news articles to "Copy & Paste" and then
> > > > cross-post
> > > > them
> > > > across the net.......
> > > > His ONLY claim to fame is writing 100+ word Subject lines.........
>
> > > So what is the year over year average forclosure rate? =A0How far
> > > off the norm is this year relative to others? =A0Are we within the
> > > 70th precentile?
> > >
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D
>
> > > About 1 percent for the yoy rate. =A0If this year is about 50
percent
> > > higher, then we are at about 1.5 percent yoy. =A0It is no big deal
> > > compared to the total amount of mortgages.
>
> > As a mere human I don't have access to historical data.
> > Fromhttp://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/60619.htm
>
> > =A0 =A0The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 2.04
> > =A0 =A0percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth
> > =A0 =A0quarter, an increase of 35 basis points from the third quarter
> > =A0 =A0of 2007 and 85 basis points from one year ago.
>
> That includes up to 4 unit residential properties so has some commercial
> residential mixed in with it. =A0But even at 2 percent of total
mortgages
> it is not a big deal. =A0Now, if it was 4 to 5 percent then we are in
some=
> trouble. ;-)
>
> > =A0 =A0The increase in foreclosure starts was due to increases for
> > =A0 =A0both prime and subprime loans. =A0From the previous quarter,
> > =A0 =A0prime fixed rate loan foreclosure starts remained unchanged
> > =A0 =A0at 0.22 percent, but prime ARM foreclosure starts increased
> > =A0 =A0four basis points to 1.06 percent. Subprime fixed foreclosure
> > =A0 =A0starts increased 14 basis points to 1.52 percent and subprime
> > =A0 =A0ARM foreclosure starts increased 57 basis points to 5.29
percent.=
> > =A0 =A0FHA foreclosure starts decreased 4 basis points to 0.91 percent
> > =A0 =A0and VA foreclosure starts remained unchanged at 0.39.
>
> > 5.29 percent for subprime means that more than one in 20 subprime
> > loans started foreclosure processing last quarter. =A0That's in one
> > quarter. =A0If that rate held for a year that would be more than
> > one in five subprimes had started foreclosure during the year.
> > That's not siginficant?
>
> That is not how it works. =A0If the rate held for the whole year, it
would=
> still just be one in 20 for the entire year. =A0Thru the fourth quarter
> the percentage of total mortgage foreclosures due to subprime ARM was
> about 0.85 percent (42 percent of 2.04 percent).
You're aggregating subprime ARM with the rest of the loans. I want
to keep the broken out because this respresents a certain segment
of the population.
I made some mistakes. I should know better than to post when tired.
Again, I have very limited access to real numbers so I have to
project from what I know until I get better infromation.
In the fourth quarter 5.29 percent of all subprime ARMs started
foreclosure. Since no statistics were given for how many of these
loans will complete foreclosure I'll assume all of them will.
If 5.29 percent of these loans are foreclosed then 94.71% are not.
Again, I'll assume the rate of foreclosures holds across the
entire life of the loan. If you can provide links to actual
stats that would be better. After 4 quarters that would be 80.05%
of the loans existing at the begining of the period that hadn't
started foreclosure. That's right at 1 in 5 that had. My one
in four didn't make any sense because I didn't reduce the number
of loan not forclosed.
>=A0So we can see that
> most of the increase of the yoy average was due to that. =A0It is really
> not very significant. =A0Also because most of these subprimes are not of
> high dollar amount mortgages to start with.
You're focusing on a different issue. To the people involved it's
a loss of a house. Maybe you could give some demographics for the
people who would take a subprime ARM on their house.
> "Of significance, however, is that the rate reset issue on adjustable
> rate mortgages is becoming less of an issue. =A0The 6-month LIBOR rate,
> the index rate used for many subprime ARMs, has come down around 2.5
> percentage points since last September, greatly reducing the payment
> shock on many ARM resets."
>
> This means things are getting better for those facing subprime ARM
> resets and the foreclosure rate should come down.
Maybe, but if the same population is heavily hit by declining
employment the foreclosure rate may not change or actually increase.
These same people are also living closer to the belt so they won't
have much room to play around with these things.
> The media loves to blow this all out of pro****tion. =A0Sure, maybe the
> foreclosure rate doubled (scary sounding) but it is still not very high
> compared to the total amount of mortgages. =A0Call me if it ever gets to
4=
> percent; then I will start to worry about it. ;-)
We have different focus.
I wonder why US ARMs are tied to the LIBOR.
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